Russia’s resolution to finish its self-imposed restriction on the deployment of intermediate-range ballistic missiles has additional raised tensions throughout European capitals and in Washington amid fears of a nuclear disaster.
The transfer, introduced by Moscow in early August, noticed Russia depart the 1987 Intermediate-Vary Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, after the US had itself earlier departed in 2019. The treaty was supposed to restrict the deployment and use of ballistic missiles with ranges as much as 5,500km, initially signed by the US and Russia in 1987.
Russia has beforehand mooted the thought of deploying nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in neighbouring Belarus, a key ally.
Inside that is the geopolitical context of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, and a latest spat between Washington and Moscow over the shortage of progress in securing a ceasefire within the greater than three-year-old battle, ensuing within the redeployment of US Navy nuclear submarines.
Given all these components, understanding the true scale of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is important.
What number of nuclear warheads does Russia have?
In late-2024, the US Protection Intelligence Company (DIA) launched a publication describing the nuclear capabilities of what it known as “overseas adversaries”, the second version from an earlier 2018 missive to deal with the strategic programmes of China, Russia, and North Korea.
Russia’s nuclear-capable missile capabilities are superior, fielding close-range ballistic missiles (CRBM), ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM), hypersonic glide autos (HGV), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), in addition to conventional nuclear gravity bombs and different supply choices for the naval and air area.
The DIA reported that Russia maintained “the most important overseas nuclear stockpile on the planet”, with about 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), in addition to a pressure of heavy bombers able to carrying air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs).
As well as, the DIA stated Moscow additionally maintained a stockpile of as much as 2,000 nuclear weapons, “designed to be included into supply programs with ranges shorter than these… within the New START treaty”, additionally known as “non-strategic” weapons.
Signed in 2010, New START was supposed to restrict the energetic stockpiles of nuclear weapons held by the US and Russia for a interval of ten years, subsequently prolonged for an additional 5 years in 2021. Set to run out in 2026 with no chance of renewal, New START has successfully ceased to perform.
The NEW START treaty didn’t cease the event of latest supply strategies, which was extra the realm of the INF settlement.
Russia’s new nuclear strike choices
Detailing some under-development nuclear supply system in 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia had developed weapons that might not be countered by present US countermeasures, together with the Sarmat ICBM, Avangard HGV, Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missiles, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered sub-surface strike system.
The DIA reported the Avangard has been built-in into the SS-19 Mod 4 ICBM and that Russia continues to area the SS-27 (RS-24, IOC 2010) ICBM, whereas the Rubezh street cell ICBM (RS-26) stays in growth.
Sarmat ICBM – The Sarmat ICBM started growth in 2016, with the primary profitable launch in 2022. It will possibly carry various kinds of nuclear weapons as much as the megaton class. The Sarmat ICBM can have the vary to hit any goal on the planet.
Avangard – The Avangard HGV features as a hypersonic weapon and is designed to remove US homeland ballistic missile defences. The system makes use of an ICBM booster to succeed in an altitude of 100km, staying under the attain of ballistic missile defences, after which descends to the goal at 33,000 km/h.
Kinzhal – The Kinzhal hypersonic missile, often known as the Killjoy, is an air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM). It has a pace of 12,231 km/hr, vary of as much as 2,000km, and has the power to make in-flight manoeuvres. The standard model of the Kinzhal has been used towards a wide range of targets in Ukraine.
Skyfall – The Russian MoD introduced this cruise missile as having a nuclear-powered engine, which might theoretically give it intercontinental vary, along with the power to fly for a number of days. The missile stays in testing and noticed a catastrophic failure in 2019, which killed 5 scientists through the missile restoration operation. All exams previous to 2019 had been reported to have resulted in a crash. The system has not but been formally licensed for fight.
As well as, Moscow continues to help the SSC-8 ground-launched, intermediate-range, nuclear-capable cruise missile programme, in accordance with the DIA.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons?
Russian nuclear doctrine permits using nuclear weapons underneath a launch-on-warning (LOW) construction, permissible when underneath imminent risk from ballistic missiles or different weapons of mass destruction, or, probably, massed use of standard strikes that might kind an existential risk to the integrity of the state.
On this situation, Russia would search conduct an entire nuclear strike, not simply launch, earlier than an actual or perceived inbound risk hit its goal.
This subjective dedication of what could possibly be thought-about an existential risk has seen Putin make quite a few threats on using nuclear weapons within the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, though that is typically thought-about to be for home media consumption fairly than any shift in doctrine.
Regardless of the Ukraine conflict, the Russian state isn’t underneath any existential risk, though separating the Putin regime from the integrity of the nation itself shall be a notable issue to contemplate. One trigger for concern emerged in 2022 when Putin intimated that Russia would use nuclear weapons within the occasion of threats to the integrity of territory taken, and subsequently annexed, in Ukraine.
When it comes to expenditure, Russia has launched into a decade-long renewal of its nuclear triad, spending round $8.6bn in 2021 alone to improve the capability of its ICBM, SLBM, and heavy bomber forces.
